1.
CLINTON SUGGEST SYRIAN REBELS WILL GET ARMS
By Arshad Mohammed
Reuters
February 23, 2012
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/24/us-syria-conference-challenge-idUSTRE81M23R20120224
LONDON -- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suggested on Thursday Syria's opposition will ultimately arm itself and said she would bet against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's staying in power.
Speaking directly to Russia and China, which have blocked U.N. Security Council resolutions designed to end the violence in Syria, Clinton said the government's "brutality" against its own people was unsustainable in the internet age.
"The strategy followed by the Syrians and their allies is one that can't stand the test of legitimacy or even brutality for any length of time," Clinton told reporters in London.
"There will be increasingly capable opposition forces. They will from somewhere, somehow, find the means to defend themselves as well as begin offensive measures," she added.
"It is clear to me there will be a breaking point," Clinton said. "I wish it would be sooner, so that more lives would be saved, than later, but I have absolutely no doubt there will be such a breaking point."
Speaking ahead of a gathering of Western and Arab powers on Friday, U.S. officials separately said the group planned to challenge Assad to provide humanitarian access within days to civilians under assault by his forces.
The officials, speaking before a "Friends of Syria" meeting expected to gather more than 70 nations and international groups in Tunis, did not say what specific consequences would follow if Syrian authorities failed to provide access.
If Assad fails to comply within 72 hours, a senior administration official in Washington said repercussions from the Tunis group might include new steps to plug the gap in sanctions Syria has tried to evade, including efforts to move money through Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe.
Another possibility, the official said, would be broadening an arms embargo already enforced by the United States, the European Union, and Turkey, and being more rigorous in forcing the revocation of insurance for any ships that might carry weapons to Syria.
ARMING THE REBELS?
The official said members of the "Friends of Syria" group were likely to pledge specific amounts of aid but did not expect them to consider arming the opposition. Arab diplomats have suggested, however, that formal or informal moves to arm the rebels may be discussed.
The Syrian military pounded rebel-held Sunni Muslim districts of Homs city for the 20th day on Thursday, despite international protest over the previous day's death toll of more than 80, including two Western journalists, activists said.
"One of the things you are going to see coming out of the meeting tomorrow are concrete proposals on how we, the international community, plan to support humanitarian organizations . . . within days, meaning that the challenge is on the Syrian regime to respond to this," said a U.S. official.
For more than a year the Syrian opposition has called for Assad, whose family has ruled Syria for four decades, to step down in the latest of the "Arab Spring" uprisings against authoritarian rulers in the Middle East.
The continued strife reflects both Assad's determination to remain in office as well as the major powers' inability to agree on a strategy on whether to try to ease, or force, him out.
Russia has said it will not attend the gathering in Tunis.
Russia has repeatedly said it does not want a resolution to become a pretext for regime change, something it believes took place when the Security Council authorized the use of force to protect civilians in Libya and that ultimately helped drive former dictator Muammar Gaddafi from power.
Clinton, however, suggested Russia and China may not be able to sustain their opposition for ever.
"The pressure will build on countries like Russia and China because world opinion is not going to stand idly by. Arab opinion is not going to be satisfied watching two nations, one for commercial reasons one for commercial and ideological reasons, bolstering a regime that is defying every rule of modern international norms," she added.
BETTING AGAINST ASSAD
Residents of Homs fear Assad will subject the city to the same treatment his late father Hafez inflicted on the rebellious town of Hama 30 years ago, when 10,000 were killed.
"When Assad's father conducted his horrific attacks back in the early '80s, there was no Internet, there was no Twitter, there were no social communication sites. There was no satellite television," Clinton said.
"It's much harder, and thankfully so, to have that level of brutality -- shelling with artillery your own people -- not be known by everyone, most particularly your own people, not after the fact but in real time," she added.
Clinton did not offer details about what the United States and its Arab and European allies might do if Assad refused to let humanitarian aid in, though she spoke of tightening existing sanctions and possibly considering new ones.
"In the event that he continues to refuse, we think that the pressure will continue to build," she said. "So it's a fluid situation. But if I were a betting person for the medium term and certainly the long term, I would be betting against Assad."
Some U.S. officials have avoided answering questions on whether the "Friends of Syria" group may discuss arming the opposition. The United States, in a change in emphasis, on Tuesday suggested it could become an alternative.
The official in Washington said formally cutting diplomatic ties with Damascus was not imminent but the United States wanted to help put the Syrian opposition on the path to legitimacy and recognition.
(Additional reporting by Matt Spetalnick; editing by Sophie Hares and Todd Eastham)
2.
CLINTON 'BETTING AGAINST ASSAD' AS TUNIS TALKS BUOY OPPOSITION
By Nicole Gaouette
Bloomberg
February 23, 2012
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-23/clinton-betting-against-assad-as-tunis-talks-buoy-opposition.html
International pressure and defections from President Bashar al-Assad’s “inner regime” should push the Syrian leader to allow humanitarian aid into the country, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said.
If Assad resists, pressure on Syria will increase, Clinton said yesterday in London as international officials prepared to meet in Tunisia to coordinate efforts to bring about his ouster and a transition to democracy.
“It’s a fluid situation, but if I were a betting person for the medium-term and certainly the long-term, I would be betting against Assad,” she said.
Clinton is scheduled to join other foreign ministers and representatives of international organizations in Tunis today to discuss ways to help the Syrian opposition and counter an image of collective ineffectiveness against a regime sheltered by two Russian and Chinese vetoes of Security Council resolutions calling on Assad to step down. Russia announced it isn’t attending the meeting.
On the eve of the talks, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Arab League head Nabil el-Arabi appointed former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan to be special envoy on the Syrian crisis. Annan, who led the world body from 1997 through 2006, will “consult broadly” in order to “end the violence and the humanitarian crisis and facilitate a peaceful Syrian-led and inclusive political solution,” their joint statement said.
Hanging over the “Friends of Syria” meeting, which is drawing representatives from more than 70 nations, is the sustained bombardment of Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, where two journalists were among the fatalities from regime mortar and artillery fire. U.N. human rights investigators in a report made public yesterday blamed Syrian officials “at the highest levels” of committing crimes against humanity.
WORLD OPINION
The pressure will build on Syria and allies Russia and China “because world opinion is not going to stand idly by,” Clinton said. “Arab opinion is not going to be satisfied, watching two nations, one for commercial reasons, one for commercial and ideological reasons, bolster a regime that is defying every rule of modern international norms.”
The U.S. has disagreed with allies like Qatar about arming the opposition, reflecting U.S. concern about further militarizing the conflict. Still, Clinton predicted, “There will be increasingly capable opposition forces. They will, from somewhere, somehow, find the means to defend themselves as well as begin offensive measures.”
DISORGANIZED OPPOSITION
The biggest obstacle to arming the opposition is its fractured nature, said two U.S. officials yesterday. There is evidence, the officials said, that Assad’s ouster would leave democratic elements of the opposition out-muscled by radical Sunni Muslims, including some allied with al-Qaeda’s Iraqi affiliate. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they aren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
With the potential for violence to get worse and destabilize neighbors, the stakes are high for the Tunis meeting, said analysts such as Joshua Landis, director of the Middle East Studies program at the University of Oklahoma in Norman.
The Friends of Syria “are coming together as a group, but they’re doing it in part out of fear,” said Landis. “The risk of getting nothing done is very high.”
That fear is that, without coordination, the opposition will be armed in a haphazard way, with different regional, ethnic, and religious actors supporting different militias and ideological currents within Syria, leading to civil war.
STAYING POWER
While Clinton has bet against Assad, Landis has said the regime will likely last into 2013. “Despite his regime’s rapid loss of legitimacy, its growing isolation, and tanking economy, no countervailing force has yet emerged that can take it down,” Landis wrote on the Middle East Policy Council website.
The army remains loyal to Assad, the opposition is weak and the international community, already divided over providing arms, probably won’t back direct military intervention, Landis wrote.
Greater militarization by providing arms would “lead Syria down a dangerous and chaotic path,” said White House spokesman Jay Carney, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One yesterday. “Obviously, we’ll have to evaluate this as time goes on.”
There are other divisions within the “Friends” group. France floated the idea of establishing a humanitarian aid corridor, which was quickly rebuffed by the U.S. and others as unworkable.
EMERGENCY AID
In an effort to create a unified front, Clinton conferred with foreign ministers from Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, France, and Germany yesterday in London on the margins of a conference on Somalia.
Clinton said she expected concrete progress in today’s meeting in three areas -- getting humanitarian relief to Syrians, increasing pressure on the regime and preparing for a democratic transition.
“To that end, we hope to see new pledges of emergency assistance for Syrians caught in Assad’s stranglehold and international coordination and diplomatic pressure on Damascus to allow it to get to those who need it most,” Clinton said.
The friends group expects Syria to allow aid into the country within days, said a U.S. official who wasn’t authorized to be quoted by name.
Both the U.S. and E.U. want tighter sanctions on Syria. The 27-nation E.U. is considering a freeze on central bank assets and a ban on imports of precious metals, an E.U. official told reporters in Brussels yesterday on condition of anonymity.
SANCTIONS PLANS
A previous E.U. plan to ban imports of phosphates from Syria has been dropped because the measure didn’t get support from all member nations, the official said. E.U. governments are willing to include a ban on Syrian cargo-only flights to the bloc among the new measures, according to the official. The Arab League already has suspended Syria and imposed economic sanctions against it.
Clinton said the Tunis meeting will also give the Syrian National Council, the largest umbrella group of Assad opponents, a chance to present its vision. She stopped short of recognizing the group, while saying the consensus view was that “the SNC is a credible representative.”
Clinton offered condolences to the families of journalist Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik and to the “thousands of families of Syrians” who have been killed or wounded by their government. A statement released yesterday by the Syrian Embassy in Washington expressed regret at the journalists’ death and rejected any suggestion the regime was at fault.
The U.N. estimates that Assad’s crackdown killed 5,400 last year while Saudi Arabia says the death toll is at least 7,000. Humanitarian and activist groups say hundreds more have died in the weeks since that estimate.
--Editors: Terry Atlas, Jim Rubin.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicole Gaouette in Washington at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
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