The chief foreign affairs analyst at the Financial Times of London wrote in Tuesday's paper with respect to a military strike on Iran's nuclear program that "Among some European decision-makers these steps are discussed with a calm -- and even a hint of relish -- that is slightly startling."[1] -- Gideon Rachman cited some reasons for the change in tone, but even so "there is a dangerous lightness to the current discussion," he said, arguing that the enormous risks of such an attack are not only underestimated but are often dismissed. -- Haaretz reported, meanwhile, that Israel has protested to Tom Donilon, the U.S. national security adviser who has been in Israel this week, that "recent comments by senior American officials critical of any Israeli attack on Iran . . . 'served Iran's interests.'"[2] -- COMMENT: It bears repeating that there is wide agreement in military and intelligence community that Iran is not in fact developing nuclear weapons and has not demonstrated any intention of doing so....
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[Excerpts]
Columnists
THE DRIFT TOWARDS WAR WITH IRAN
By Gideon Rachman
Financial Times (London)
February 20, 2012
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/014ed7e4-5bb5-11e1-a447-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1mzkibJxY (subscribers only)
The question of whether a war will break out over Iran’s nuclear program has been around for so long that it is easy to become almost blasé. In 2006 Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, was already asserting dramatically: “It’s 1938 and Iran is Germany.”
This year, however, feels different. The threat of war is much more real. A conflict would begin with an Israeli bombing raid on Iran. But it would be likely swiftly to draw in the U.S. -- probably the U.K. and France, as well, and possibly the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia.
Israeli fears are driving the process. . . .
But Israel is not the only factor. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are also obsessed with the need to prevent Iran getting nuclear weapons. . . .
. . .
Among some European decision-makers these steps are discussed with a calm -- and even a hint of relish -- that is slightly startling. So why the change in mood?
There are several factors. First, while Mr. Netanyahu is not liked or trusted by his counterparts in Washington, Paris, and London, Israeli and Saudi concerns about the progress of Iran’s nuclear program are, to a significant extent, shared by their U.S. and European counterparts.
Second, the success of the Libyan conflict has restored confidence in the effectiveness of air power. . . .
. . .
Fourth, Saudi Arabia has made it clear that if Iran does successfully acquire a bomb, it will swiftly do the same. The Saudis are believed to have a deal with Pakistan, which is already a nuclear weapons state. . . .
. . .
If you listen to these arguments long enough, they almost begin to sound reasonable. But before the West slides into yet another armed conflict in the Middle East, the counter-arguments need urgently to be restated.
. . .
Iran may not be able to retaliate effectively in Iraq -- but it could hit NATO troops in Afghanistan, perhaps by providing the Taliban with anti-aircraft missiles. The water supplies of the Gulf states are also vulnerable to attacks on desalination plants, as are their oil production facilities. Finally, the delicate politics of the Arab spring are a more powerful argument against attacking Iran than they are for launching an assault. Western military action, in alliance with Israel and against a Muslim country, would be a huge boost to militant Islamists.
None of this means that an attack on Iran’s nuclear program is unthinkable. But there is a dangerous lightness to the current discussion.
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ISRAEL: U.S. STATEMENTS AGAINST SERVE IRAN'S INTERESTS
By Barak Ravid
** Netanyahu, Barak, senior officials make their displeasure known to national security adviser during visit to Israel. **
Haaretz
February 21, 2012
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-u-s-statements-against-attack-serve-iran-s-interests-1.413845
Israel has protested to the United States over recent comments by senior American officials critical of any Israeli attack on Iran, saying this criticism "served Iran's interests."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and other senior officials made their displeasure known to Tom Donilon, U.S. national security adviser who has been in Israel this week.
A senior Israeli official said Netanyahu and Barak told Donilon of their dissatisfaction with the interview given by Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff, to CNN on Sunday.
Dempsey said "I don't think a wise thing at this moment is for Israel to launch a military attack on Iran," and a strike "would be destabilizing" and "not prudent."
Dempsey said the United States has so far not been able to persuade Israel not to attack Iran. "I wouldn't suggest that we've persuaded them that our view is the correct view," he said.
The Israeli officials also objected to a number of briefings senior American officials gave American correspondents, who wrote in recent weeks about a possible Israeli attack in Iran.
The story that angered Netanyahu most was an NBC broadcast two weeks ago saying Israel would attack Iran's nuclear facilities with Jericho missiles, commando forces and F-151 jets.
"We made it clear to Donilon that all those statements and briefings only served the Iranians," a senior Israeli official said. "The Iranians see there's controversy between the United States and Israel, and that the Americans object to a military act. That reduces the pressure on them."
Donilon also met a team of Israeli experts from the ministries and intelligence agencies, headed by National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror, who coordinates the Iranian portfolio. He also met Mossad chief Tamir Pardo, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, and Military Intelligence head Aviv Kochavi.
All the officials told Donilon that the pressure and sanctions on Iran must be increased, especially to avoid having to use military force.
"We made it clear that if we don't increase the pressure on the Iranians now, we might be in a situation in which the question how Iran obtained nuclear weapons would become an issue for commentators and historians," the official said.
The talks between Israel and the United States on the Iranian nuclear issue will continue on Thursday, when U.S. National Director of Intelligence James Clapper comes to Israel for talks with intelligence and defense establishment heads.
The White House said on Monday that Donilon invited Netanyahu to a meeting with President Barack Obama on March 5.
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