IRAN CONFRONTS SAUDIS ON OIL OFFER
By Benoît Faucon, Rakesh Sharma, and Se Young Lee
Wall Street Journal
January 17, 2012
Iran warned Saudi Arabia against delivering additional oil to world markets to compensate for a drop in Iranian oil exports if they are hit by sanctions, as the U.S. continued to have mixed success in convincing Iran's major oil customers to reduce their purchases of Iranian oil.
The warning from Tehran came a day after Saudi Arabia's oil minister publicly pledged to boost the kingdom's production by as much as 2.7 million barrels a day, more than Iran exports, if there was market demand for more oil.
Though Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi didn't mention Iran, the pledge came as the West is ratcheting up pressure on the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program by targeting its exports.
"We invite Saudi officials to further reflect on and consider" their pledge to make up for any cut in oil exports, Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said, in comments carried by state news agency IRNA.
Although indirect, the exchange marked the first verbal sparring between Iran and one of the Western-allied monarchies directly across the Persian Gulf.
At the end of last year, U.S. President Barack Obama signed a law imposing sanctions against banks that trade with the Iran's central bank, through which much of Iranian oil sales are cleared. The European Union also has agreed in principle on an Iranian oil-import ban. Neither effort would go into effect until later this year.
Mr. Salehi said Mr. Naimi's pledges "will create all possible problems later" between Saudi Arabia and its Iranian neighbor and called them "not friendly signals."
Iran has threatened for several weeks to try to close the Strait of Hormuz, where one-third of the world's traded oil passes, if sanctions are imposed, while the U.S. has warned Iran it would do whatever is necessary to keep the strait open.
India said on Tuesday it would continue to purchase Iranian oil and wouldn't seek a waiver from the U.S. to sidestep the sanctions -- effectively saying it intended to ignore the U.S. sanctions regime. Under the U.S. sanctions program, President Obama can grant exceptions and waivers from U.S.-imposed penalties to countries that reduce Iranian oil purchases.
Indian Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai said his government would only recognize multilateral sanctions imposed by the United Nations.
"We have accepted sanctions which are made by the United Nations. Other sanctions do not apply to individual countries. We don't accept that position," Mr. Mathai told a news conference.
India gets about three-quarters of the crude oil it requires through imports. Iran is its second-largest supplier after Saudi Arabia.
"We continue to buy oil from Iran. A large number of European Union countries also buy oil from Iran," Mr. Mathai said.
Mr. Mathai said a multi-ministerial Indian delegation is on its way to Tehran "to work out a mechanism for uninterrupted purchase of oil from Iran and to work out a financing mechanism."
South Korea said it will continue bilateral discussions with the U.S. to find an acceptable compromise on sanctions against Iran's crude-oil exports, as the resource-poor country attempts to safeguard its energy security without alienating its key ally and trade partner.
South Korea gets nearly 10% of its crude oil from Iran, and would have difficulty finding alternative supplies quickly. The government has said it will look to secure alternative supplies to Iranian crude from Iraq and Kuwait.
A delegation of U.S. officials led by Robert Einhorn, special adviser on nonproliferation and arms control, met with South Korean officials on Tuesday to solicit Seoul's cooperation on U.S.-led efforts to curtail Iran's oil revenue.
The U.S. delegation stressed the importance of resolving the standoff over Iran's nuclear program through global cooperation, the South Korean government said.
The U.S. seeks a gradual reduction of Iranian oil imports, to avoid disrupting the global crude-oil market or hurting its allies, though the rising tensions with Iran have already pushed crude prices higher.
In response, South Korean officials expressed their desire to go along with the multilateral effort but stressed the importance of minimizing the impact of the sanctions on the Korean economy, which is almost wholly dependent on overseas producers for its energy needs.
"The two sides agreed to continue efforts to reach an amicable solution that takes into account the interests of our country and companies while achieving the target sought by the U.S.," a South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman said. The two countries plan additional talks over the matter but didn't specify any dates.
Washington can choose to grant Seoul either an exception or a waiver to its sanctions. To be an exception, South Korea would have 180 days from the date the U.S. law took effect to reduce Iranian crude imports, while for a waiver it would have to act within a 120-day period in a way that would reinforce U.S. security.
Seoul is more likely to opt to be considered as an exception, according to people familiar with the matter, a path that would require it to reduce Iranian crude imports significantly by the end of June.
--Saurabh Chaturvedi contributed to this article.
AS TENSIONS RISE, SOME SEE 'COVERT WAR' WITH IRAN
By Neal Cohan, with Patrick Clawson and Gary Sick
January 17, 2012
NEAL CONAN, HOST:
This is TALK OF THE NATION. I'm Neal Conan in Washington. Earlier this month, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta described an Iranian nuclear weapon as a red line, unacceptable to the United States, presumably cause for war. But many analysts believe that a clandestine war is already underway as Israel and the U.S. try to slow down Iran's nuclear program.
Just last week, an Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated in Tehran, at least the fourth to be killed over the past couple of years. Late last year, huge explosions destroyed an Iranian missile base, and various types of sabotage have disrupted Iran's uranium enrichment facilities.
Later in the program, Tuesdays with Dorie, bakers alert. But first, the covert war with Iran, and we begin with Patrick Clawson, director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he directs the Iran Security Initiative. He's kind enough to join us today here in Studio 3A. Thanks very much for coming in.
PATRICK CLAWSON: Thank you for having me.
CONAN: And you've been quoted as saying that a lot of people have asked you when Israel is going to attack Iran, and you say two years ago.
CLAWSON: What's going on now with assassinations and cyberwar is wantonly acts of war, and when you combine that with the U.N. sanctions, which block Iran's access to many of the key materials and technology that it needs, the U.S. program of encouraging defections from Iran's nuclear program -- one of their key scientists showed up in Washington last year before he made the bad decision to return -- and the Swiss government had to reveal the U.S. role in sabotaging equipment going to Iran after they arrested some Swiss for selling things to Iran, and then...
CONAN: Double embarrassment. They had to reveal that the Swiss were selling equipment for Iran's nuclear program and then that those pieces had been doctored by the United States to fail.
CLAWSON: Well, the Swiss government made huge publicity announcements about the arrests of these people and saying this kind of activity cannot be allowed in Switzerland. And then a month later, when they let the people go, the parliament said, hey, what's going on?
And the Swiss had to acknowledge that all of those parts that had been sold to Iran had been shipped via Los Alamos, which is not the most logical route.
CONAN: Not the most logical route, and then there is the Stuxnet worm, the computer virus that appears to have in some cases seriously afflicted Iran's nuclear uranium enrichment facilities.
CLAWSON: It also appears to be the gift that keeps on giving in that it appears that there are still other parts of the Stuxnet virus which can be -- which may be activated later on.
CONAN: And so Iran's nuclear program keeps trying to get stalled, and that's the goal here, no?
CLAWSON: They've been at it for 24 years. That's a long time. And as one senior U.S. government official puts it to me, if 24 years from now they're still at it, that will constitute success.
CONAN: That will -- in other words, some people say Iran is as little as a year away, some say longer than that. Some question whether Iran is mounting a nuclear weapons program at all, that's another point. But presumably if they are, the goal is to stretch that time period out as long as possible with acts of war?
CLAWSON: Look, it would be much better if we could engage with Iran and get them to agree to suspend their program, as the Security Council has called on them to do. It would be much better if the Iranians would agree to engage with the Obama administration in official bilateral talks, as for years they said they wanted to do with the United States.
And if those things don't happen, well, then we have to look around for alternatives.
CONAN: And this alternative, this clandestine war, preferable to all-out war?
CLAWSON: I would certainly think so. I mean all-out war has -- can go all kinds of ways that would be quite terrible to think about.
CONAN: Let's bring another voice into the conversation. Gary Sick, a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Middle East Institute, he's also professor of international affairs there at Columbia, joins us by phone from his office in New York. Nice to have you back on the program.
GARY SICK: Glad to be here, Neal.
CONAN: And does this amount to warfare by another name?
SICK: I think it amounts to warfare period. The -- and actually, I would like to go beyond just the clandestine part because I think there's another kind of stealth attack being mounted that we tend to dismiss. But first of all, to look at the cyberwarfare, indeed there's no question that the Stuxnet worm has had an impact on Iran's centrifuges, though from all appearances they seem to have overcome that, and they are now producing enriched uranium once again.
Maybe they had -- they suffered some problems from it, but you know, they continue to keep on producing. What was interesting to me was a report today that Israel is under cyberattack, El-Al Airlines and the stock exchange are both suffering denial-of-service attacks, and what claims to be a Saudi hacker named Ox Omar has released thousands of Israeli credit card names and numbers and so forth on a public website.
My point here is that this is something that can actually cut both ways. And, you know, we've been patting ourselves on the back very much so about this brilliant cyberattack of Stuxnet, but you know, nobody seems to ask the question of whether there isn't going to be some blowback from that, because of all the fields in the world where you can play, probably the cyberwarfare field is the levelest.
Iran actually has a capacity to hit us almost as great as our capacity to hit them, and that is something which I really wish we had thought about a little bit more before we started that process.
CONAN: Indeed there was some suspicion with the Venezuelan consul in Miami may have been involved, allegedly, in a plot with Iranian officials to do exactly that, Gary Sick, be involved in some cyber-attacks or preparatory to some cyber-attacks against the United States. But if it slows down the Iranian nuclear program, is not that a benefit?
SICK: Well, it all depends. You see, if this had stopped the Iranian nuclear program, then perhaps you could make that argument. The most it did was force them to stop, re-gear, clean up their system, and then go back to work. And that was a matter of months, I mean literally a matter of weeks or months, by the time they recovered from the thing.
Now, there may be more, as Patrick Clawson said, more pieces of this ready to go into action later on, but that, but if -- for instance, the power plant in your town, in your neighborhood, suddenly goes out of control and blows up, would you regard that as a reasonable price to pay for that temporary slowdown of the centrifuges in Natanz?
And there will be no fingerprints left on that if it happens, and in fact, you know, our own cybersecurity people, you know, are talking all the time about how truly vulnerable we are, because our entire system works on the Internet and involves that kind of activity.
So you know, I'm a little concerned, and sometimes on these things we act as if we are able to function with total impunity. We can do what we like, but nobody can do it to us. An Israeli commentator just yesterday made the remark that these assassinations of Iranian scientists, who at least the Iranians certainly believe are Israeli hits, which, you know, we'll never be able to prove it, probably, what if they started assassinating Western scientists?
So you've got a Western, you know, convention of scientists on some subject, and suddenly some of them are bumped off. There's no security, for the most part, around these events. Is that something that we've either thought about or we're willing to accept? Maybe the people who carried out the operation are, but the people who are likely to be the targets may not have the same view.
CONAN: Patrick Clawson, that would certainly be described as an act of terrorism.
CLAWSON: Yes, and look, Israel already faces a situation in which Iran provides weapons and financing for terrorist groups that are trying to kill innocent Israelis all the time, and unfortunately succeed all too often, I'm talking about Hezbollah and Hamas.
And so Israel feels that Iran's shooting at Israel, and those who are shooting shouldn't be surprised to get shot back at. So I don't think it would be appropriate for the United States to be in a campaign of assassinations with the Iranian nuclear scientists, but Israel is in a different situation.
We, by the way, the United States, is in a vigorous campaign of assassinations. We do it through Predator drones, including against our own citizens -- Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen, for instance. Mr. Awlaki was never accused of having picked up a gun, but we felt it was all right to kill him without any trial.
TOM: Thank you, yes. I was wondering who the supporting countries or states that are supporting Iran's goals to become a nuclear power, either through just energy or nuclear weapons...
CONAN: Well, those are two different things and very different things. Patrick Clawson, if you're talking about nuclear energy, clearly Russia, which provided the reactor at Bushehr, which is a nuclear energy plant; if you're talking about nuclear weapons, well, you're talking about a rather murkier group of countries, including Pakistan, North Korea.
CLAWSON: Well, we don't know about North Korea. We know very little about what North Korea may or may not be doing with Iran's nuclear program, and it's very troubling. There was a case of a Ukrainian scientist who the IAEA pointed out was providing considerable assistance to...
CONAN: But unclear that he was acting on the behest of the Ukrainian government.
CLAWSON: Exactly correct, and indeed he felt that he was helping with a process for producing artificial diamonds, which is something that he has long been convinced is how this technology can be used. Not everybody else agrees that that's the principal use you'd make of his technology. He spent many years in the Soviet nuclear program.
CONAN: But at this point Iran's nuclear program may not need any more assistance from the outside.
CLAWSON: Not clear. If I were an Iranian leader, I'd be kind of nervous about how well my systems would work at actually making highly enriched uranium. No one's ever been able to make highly enriched uranium with the kind of centrifuges that Iran has got working.
CONAN: Tom, thanks very much for the call.
TOM: Thank you.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)
CONAN: This is TALK OF THE NATION from NPR News. I'm Neal Conan. Last week, motorcyclists streaked by a car, attached a magnetic bomb. The blast tore the silver Peugeot apart and killed the nuclear scientist riding inside and his driver. The scientist, described as a chemistry expert, director of Iran's main uranium -- nuclear enrichment facility. It also fatally wounded his driver.
Iran's atomic energy organization condemned the bombing as a heinous act and vowed to continue down the nuclear path. As the U.S. and its allies lean on Iran to abandon nuclear ambitions through diplomacy and sanctions, a covert plan to pressure Iran seems to be gaining steam.
Our guests are Patrick Clawson, director of research at the Washington Institute and Gary Sick of Columbia University's Middle East Institute. Gary Sick, you mentioned earlier that this clandestine warfare is just part of the campaign against Iran. The other part is these economic sanctions, which are ratcheting ever higher.
SICK: Yes, you know, we've been using sanctions against Iran, usually financial sanctions or sanctions against their industry, we've been doing it, the United States has been doing it very actively since 1995. We had some sanctions on Iran before that, but those were the directed ones against their energy industry.
And so we started in 1995 to sanction their industry and oppose Iran. At the time we started those sanctions, Iran had not one single centrifuge turning in the country. Today, after more than 16 years of gradually increasing sanctions, Iran now has at least 8,000 operational centrifuges and a considerable store of low-enriched uranium. To me, that's a description of a failed policy.
And what we have done at each stage is increase the sanctions because the last ones didn't work. You finally get to a point where you can't tell sanctions from warfare. The sanctions that the Congress has imposed now in the latest defense authorization bill basically call for the United States, for all the countries of the world but the United States in particular, to force Iran's banks not to be able to -- not to be able to sell their oil so that Iran basically is cut off from its oil sales completely. That's 50 percent of Iran's income.
Now, I think most countries who are faced with a threat of 50 percent of their national revenues being cut off would regard that as a hostile act no matter how you look at it. And I think we need to remember, too, that if those sanctions were actually successful, they actually succeeded in cutting off Iran's oil exports, Iran would then have no motivation to not close the Strait of Hormuz.
Right now they can't close it, and they would not even be tempted to close it because their own oil goes out that way, but if their oil is cut off, then probably you can assume that Iran is not going to sit on its hands and simply, you know, moan its fate, it's going to probably do something.
And there are things that Iran could do to interfere with the oil shipping in the Persian Gulf, which is a huge part of the world's oil supply. So I think again, we need to think about what the consequences are of some of the things that we're doing.
CONAN: Patrick Clawson, the Iranians have always said if we can't ship oil through the Strait of Hormuz, nobody can ship oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
CLAWSON: Well, the U.S.' goal is to get back in negotiations. You talk to anybody in the Obama Iran team, and they portray these sanctions as an instrument, and the objective is to get back to negotiations, to engage with Iran and to reach an agreement with the Iranians.
And so it's not like the Obama administration is a bunch of warmongers, quite the contrary. They see the way this dispute's going to be settled is through a negotiation. And the question is what can they do to get the negotiation started.
Obama offered negotiations when he came into office, extended the hand of friendship, and the Iranians, who for years had said that they wanted to have negotiations without preconditions with the U.S. government, have done exactly nothing to take that up.
And that's very frustrating to the Obama team because their objective's always focused on how do we get back to negotiations. It's been more than a year since the last time that Iran sat down with the countries negotiating about the nuclear issue, that's the so-called P5-plus-1, the permanent five members of the United Nations plus Germany, and nobody would be happier than the Obama administration if there could be fruitful discussions again.
Now, there's talk about a new round of negotiations. The Iranians claim that they're interested in this. Let's hope that's true. Let's hope that this time when they show up, they do something other than talk about their principles for how to manage the world and every other topic except the nuclear matter.
CONAN: Let's go next to Tony(ph), Tony's on the line from San Antonio.
TONY: So many questions, Neal, so little time.
(SOUNDBITE OF LAUGHTER)
TONY: One point, actually I have two questions. First, should they weaponize their nuclear program, how far away do they -- do your panel guests feel they are from actually being able to deliver those weapons? And where is the rest of the Middle East? Where is Saudi? Where is Turkey in this equation, should we say, this negotiation equation? They have a more vested interest in a nuclear-free Iran than the United States does.
CONAN: A couple of interesting questions, Tony. Delivery systems, Patrick Clawson, that mysterious explosion that devastated a missile development facility outside of Tehran and killed a general. The Iranians initially said it was an accident, and it's increasingly, a lot of people think it was an act of sabotage.
CLAWSON: Well, Iran has a pretty sophisticated missile program, which they're working away at it. However, it probably is going to be several years before they could have a nuclear warhead that would fit on a missile that they could deliver, say, to Israel.
And that's the reason that U.S. officials, and increasingly Israeli officials, are reasonably confident that Iran's not going to rush to assemble a nuclear device, a primitive bomb-like thing which they could explode similar to what the North Koreans did.
But instead Iran's going to wait until it can actually have a warhead on a missile.
CONAN: The whole package.
CLAWSON: The whole package, and that would certainly be several years from now.
CONAN: And in terms of its neighbors, Gary Sick, Saudi Arabia is a rival to Iran, I think that's clear on any number of fronts. Turkey, though, that's another question.
SICK: Yeah, I think the neighbors each have their own foreign policy, and Iran has its own foreign policy toward those neighbors. I would like to address that first part of the question.
CONAN: Sure, go ahead.
SICK: Because with regard to Iran actually building a nuclear weapon, the IAEA report, even the most alarming one, the most recent one, did not say that Iran was building.
CONAN: No smoking gun.
SICK: There really isn't, and I was really struck the other day when Leon Panetta, who is now the secretary of defense but was just not long ago the head of the CIA, he was asked point blank is Iran building a nuclear weapon. And his answer to that was no.
And I thought that was really -- it's the first time I've heard a senior U.S. official be so blunt and straightforward about it. Now, one can be concerned that Iran might change its mind and start building a nuclear weapon, but they haven't done it thus far, and it's the best judgment of the United States and the intelligence services elsewhere that they haven't done it.
So to me, that's the starting point for analysis, which is basically we do have quite a bit of time. Iran has been at this nuclear process since call it 1985, when they probably made their first decision to get involved in a nuclear program. Here they are all these years later, and they don't have a nuclear weapon.
No other country in the world, including Pakistan, which was really had very little industrial capability, from the time they decided to build a bomb, they had one in hand within 12 years. Iran has been at this now for over 20 years, and we still -- they still don't have a bomb.
I think you can either draw the conclusion that Iran is simply stupid, totally incompetent and have no ability to do these things, or you can draw the conclusion that in fact contrary to popular belief, they really haven't been in a hurry to actually build a bomb. They've been interested in building a nuclear capability.
And these two things get confused in people's minds. I think it's important to keep those separate and to realize that in fact there is time. And I do agree with Patrick that in fact the answer to this is negotiations. I think we've seen some examples of negotiation in the past. I must add what Patrick said, that we proposed a swap solution for some of the uranium in 2009, the Turks and the Brazilians, with our support, actually negotiated such an agreement with Iran, and we turned it down in 2010.
Why? Because it was getting in the way of our sanctions regime. And basically if you let the sanctions drive things, then our objective is not to get to the negotiating table, which Iran was clearly offering at that point, but rather to get more sanctions. We have to really keep it clear in our own head.
And I think if you look at what the Congress is doing right now, it's hard to read the new sanctions laws as being aimed to getting back to the negotiating table. It's intended for regime change. It is intended to basically force Iran into a submissive position, and I think that is probably a very dangerous way to go about doing our business.
CONAN: In there, you may have heard when Gary Sick was talking about why it had taken Iran so long to not develop a nuclear weapon, and you may have heard Patrick Clawson say sanctions in the background. But any case, let's see if we get another caller in on the conversation. Bill is on the line from Little Rock.
BILL: Hello. Thank you. And I hope everyone is doing well today.
CONAN: Thank you.
BILL: My question and -- is -- concerns the assasinations and why it appears as though it's assumed that they're being done by other countries and their operatives, as opposed to some group in Iran that maybe doesn't want Iran to have nuclear weapons and they want to stop it. Is there any possibility of that whatsoever?
CONAN: Patrick Clawson, I've heard some speculation that maybe some of these scientists were taken out by the Iranians themselves, for various reasons. Maybe they were about to defect or something like that. But I've not heard that speculation, as Bill mentioned, that this might have been an internal group.
CLAWSON: Well, Iranians love conspiracy theories, and there's lots of conspiracy theories out there. But what we do know about these assassinations is that they were terribly, professionally conducted. And that's not been typical of political assassinations inside Iran. There are lots of assassinations inside Iran, but they've been done by pretty basic techniques, like, you know, shooting a gun or a knife, whereas these assassinations were really very sophisticated. For one thing, the people got away.
And the agency which has used that kind of sophisticated assassination technique quite a bit in -- around the world has been the Mossad. There was the episode in Dubai, a guy caught on cameras. There was an episode in Oman a few years ago -- which they botched. But this is a typical -- the Mossad's technique. So I would say that the Mossad starts out as the usual suspect. Now, sometimes, the obvious suspect is not the guilty party, but, boy, I would start out with the Mossad as the obvious suspect.
CONAN: And cui bono, who benefits?
CLAWSON: It's quite clear to see how the Israelis benefit. I mean, after all, it's the former head of the Mossad who has been the loudest voice inside Israel saying there's no reason that Israel needs to have air strikes against the Iranian nuclear program. The quiet subtext, which is an open secret in Israel, is what he's saying is my agency saw this problem. We took cared of it. We solved it. No reason for the military to get involved.
SICK: Neal, can I add a comment on this?
SICK: I, you know, with response to the question about could it be an internal group, obviously, I agree with Patrick that Iran is full of conspiracy theories. But in reality, in January of 2011, just a year ago, Iran actually announced that it had captured the killers of the -- of a previous assassination that they were people who had training by, you know, by Mossad, that they have been trained by -- this got very little coverage in the American media, and it may not be true.
I mean, they may be making this up. But, at least, I think there's no question that the Iranians truly believe that this is an outside hand that is doing this, and I think they've got very good reason for that. The conspiracy theories that somehow the Iranians are doing it themselves -- and I agree with Patrick very much -- that the kind of sophisticated techniques are not typical of little groups that happened to form in, you know, a country like Iran and carry out a really sophisticated assassination.
CONAN: Bill, thanks very much for the call. Gary Sick of Columbia University, Patrick Clawson of the Washington Institute. You're listening to TALK OF THE NATION from NPR News. And, Gary Sick, I wanted to ask you further about a piece you just wrote today, where you looked at what seemed to be very divergent statements from the Obama administration. Yes, on the one hand, Secretary of Defense Panetta says Iran is not trying to build a nuclear weapon. On the other hand, to build one is a red line to close the Straits of Hormuz is a red line. There are bellicose statements coming. And at the same time, you suggest three-dimensional chess. What are you talking about?
SICK: It seems to me that the Obama administration has three separate problems. One is that they really would like to get -- that they worry very much about getting involved in a shooting war, which actually there's almost nothing good that could come of that for the United States, for Iran, for the region, anything. So I think they don't want to get dragged into a war. The second thing is they've got a problem because Israel continues to threaten an independent strike on Iran.
And I think the administration has to worry about that because if it happened, we would be dragged into it as well. And the third thing is that there's an election going on. And Obama has to worry about running for re-election under the charge that he's being soft on Iran, which already people are saying, quite openly, on the Republican side.
CONAN: With one exception. Go ahead.
SICK: So this is a kind of three-dimensional chess problem that he's got multiple messages. So when you hear two or three different things coming from the same mouths in the Iranian -- in the Obama administration, one way to read that is that they're delivering messages to different people, and it can be very, very confusing to listen to. But that's at least one interpretation of why you're hearing so many dissident voices in the administration.
CONAN: Patrick Clawson, we may have years before a deliverable nuclear weapon if that Iran's goal, but maybe not so long if those sanctions take effect in the next few months.
CLAWSON: Well, we could be at a testing moment between two different theories. One theory being that the Obama administration by pressing Iran harder and harder, we will get them back to the negotiating table for fruitful negotiations. And the other is the theory of the Iranian government, that they can outlast any kind of sanctions. And it does look like we're coming to, well, we're going to find out this year which of those two theories is correct.
CONAN: Patrick Clawson, director of research at the Washington Institute, where he directs the Iran Security Initiative, joined us here in Studio 3A. Thanks very much for your time. And Gary Sick, senior research scholar at Columbia University's Middle East Institute, where he's also a professor of international affairs at Columbia, with us by phone from New York. Gary Sick, nice to have you with us today.
SICK: Thank you very much, Neal.
* * *
Matt Love (ThePopeofPop) wrote:
Has anybody noticed the striking contrast between the intelligence and compliance level between people who call in, and people who comment on this site? The callers are all gullible, and parrot the standard government and media lines, while there is a great deal more intelligence and independent thought on display in these comments. When somebody calls in with a patently absurd, but pro-U.S. conspiracy theory, they help him out by saying "the Iranians love conspiracy theories" -- though it was a conspiracy theory being proposed by an American caller. Americans of course invented a theory that Iranians loaded an airliner with cadavers and flew it around in their own airspace so when the U.S military was forced to shooting it down (how purely evil, to fly inside their own airspace!) it would appear to the world that the U.S. would shoot down an airliner filled with civilians. And of course, wild tales like this are still told, every day. For example, one guest piously dismissing the crazy notion that Obama is a "warmonger" who is very interested in negotiation. Anybody can see his record (quite typical for an American president) -- yet the Iranians are supposed to ignore it, and believe in the myths propagandists advance in the U.S. media.
WASHINGTON'S CRIMES AGAINST IRAN
By Peter Symonds
January 16, 2012
The murder of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan on January 11 is further testimony to the criminality of U.S. foreign policy. Despite the official denials of the Obama administration, the assassination bears all the hallmarks of an operation carried out by the Israel intelligence agency, Mossad, in league with the U.S.
The Iranian regime has taken the unusual step of addressing a letter to Washington declaring that it has “reliable documents and evidence that this terrorist act was planned, guided, and supported by the CIA.” A second letter to the British embassy alleges that the British intelligence agency MI6 “assisted” in the plot.
Roshan is the fourth Iranian nuclear scientist to be murdered over the past two years as part of a barely disguised covert war inside Iran that has included unexplained explosions at key military and nuclear facilities and the use of the Stuxnet computer worm to infect and damage nuclear equipment. Several of the assassinations, including the latest, involved the same modus operandi -- a “sticky” magnetic bomb planted by motorbike on the side of a car.
While implausible, the Obama administration’s “categorical denial” of any involvement in the latest assassination serves a definite legal purpose. The White House rationalizes its murderous campaign by drone attack inside Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other countries as supposedly sanctioned by the authorization for use of military force passed by Congress in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. The killing of Iranian citizens, or providing aid or intelligence to Mossad to do so, can hardly be legally justified with reference to a 2001 resolution ostensibly directed against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The assassination of Roshan and the other scientists is a clear breach of an executive order dating back to the 1970s that officially bans assassinations, opening up the Obama administration to legal action.
The involvement of the U.S. in assassination and sabotage inside Iran raises fresh questions about the killing of the young woman, Neda Agha-Soltan, at the height of U.S. support for the so-called Green Movement protests in Iran in June 2009. The U.S. and international media immediately blamed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and turned the victim into a martyr to whip up public support for efforts to install a regime sympathetic to Western interests. It is at least as plausible that Neda was set up for murder by U.S. or Israeli agents, with her death conveniently filmed, in order to add further fuel to the hysterical media campaign against Ahmadinejad’s election victory.
As in the case of every other crime of U.S. imperialism, the American media has stepped in to justify the campaign of sabotage and murder inside Iran. A front-page New York Times article published January 12 and entitled “Adversaries of Iran Said to Be Stepping Up Covert Actions” reported what is commonly accepted in the U.S. intelligence community -- that Israel was responsible for the murder and that the U.S., in alliance with Israel, is engaged in “covert efforts against the Iranian nuclear program.”
The Times does not criticize the criminal and reckless character of these actions, but accepts them as a legitimate tool of foreign policy. It quotes, without comment, Patrick Clawson, director of the Iran Security Initiative at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, as saying, “Sabotage and assassination is the way to go, if you can do it.”
The brazen defense by the Times and virtually the entire establishment media in the U.S. of assassination as a legitimate tactic underscores the criminalization of U.S. foreign policy, particularly over the past twenty years since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. It also expresses the collapse of any democratic consciousness or commitment to democratic rights within the ruling class.
The hypocrisy of the media establishment knows no bounds. Only three months ago, the American press was demanding retaliation over entirely unsubstantiated claims by the Obama administration that Iran was involved in an improbable plan to hire a Mexican drug cartel to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington on American soil.
Like so much of the commentary on the assassination of Roshan, the Times focuses not on its criminality, but the efficacy of covert action in achieving U.S. ends. “The multifaceted covert campaign against Iran has appeared to offer an alternative to war,” the article declared. “But at most it has slowed, not halted, Iran’s enrichment of uranium.”
The British-based Sunday Times yesterday published a blow-by-blow account, based on unnamed sources, of the carefully-planned Mossad bombing of Roshan’s car in peak hour traffic in Tehran. Significantly, according to one Israeli source, “the killings were a precursor to a military strike, not merely an alternative, to make it more difficult for Iran to rebuild facilities if they are bombed.”
In reality, the killing of top nuclear scientists and the sabotage of facilities was never to stop or significantly hinder Iran’s nuclear programs, which Tehran has repeatedly insisted are for peaceful purposes. Rather, the murders are provocations calculated to incite retaliation by Tehran that can, in turn, be exploited to further demonize Iran and provide the pretext for war.
The murders go hand-in-hand with an intensification of economic warfare and a military build-up against Iran since the beginning of the year. The U.S., in collaboration with its European allies, is in the process of imposing a de facto embargo on Iran’s oil exports that threatens to collapse the Iranian economy. The latest sanctions are being imposed unilaterally, without even the fig leaf of a U.N. Security Council resolution. The U.S. is not only menacing Iran, but threatening penalties against those countries opposed to the embargo, such as China.
At the same time, the Pentagon has just doubled the number of U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups in the immediate vicinity of the Persian Gulf, greatly enhancing its ability to wage a devastating aerial and naval war against Iran.
The killing of Roshan underlines the fact that the U.S. will stop at nothing as it seeks to destabilise the Iranian regime and replace it with a more pliable alternative. Washington’s predatory activities in the Middle East are being driven by the vast erosion of the global economic position of the United States. As it has already done in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, the U.S. is using its military muscle to undermine the economic and strategic interests of its main European and Asian rivals.
The same political gangsters in the White House who are plotting against Tehran are also responsible for the devastation of the living standards of the American working class. The escalating propaganda campaign against Iran and heightened danger of a catastrophic new war serve as a convenient political diversion from sharpening class tensions at home.
The American and international working class must oppose any war, covert or overt, against Iran on the basis of a socialist and internationalist strategy directed at abolishing the crisis-ridden capitalist system, which can offer nothing but plummeting living standards and the slide towards a third world war.
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