UNITED FOR PEACE OF PIERCE COUNTY

"We nonviolently oppose the reliance on unilateral military actions rather than cooperative diplomacy."

PORTENTS OF EVIL IMMINENT

May 21, 2015

Last weekend Ramadi fell; yesterday, Palmyra.  What does the future hold for the Islamic State?  And what should the United States do?

A few weeks ago, the prevailing consensus was that the advance of the Islamic State had been stemmed.  The attempt to take Kobani had failed, the Kurds were holding firm, and plans to retake Mosul were in the works.  For two months we heard rumors about the possible death or incapacitation of the group's founder, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, known to followers as Caliph Ibrahim since June 29, 2014, when ISIS declared the restoration of the 7th-century Islamic caliphate.

The rumors of al-Baghdadi's incapacitation were dispelled on May 14, however, when in conjunction with the launching of its latest multipronged offensive the Islamic State released an audio recording by him.  His troops must have taken heart: days later, they drove elite Iraqi troops from Ramadi and took possession of the capital of Anbar province, something Patrick Cockburn found even more impressive than the Islamic State's surprise conquest of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, in June 2014.  Yesterday the Islamic State drove Syrian troops out of Palmyra, imperiling a World Heritage Site.  These feats of arms make the question of the Islamic State's prospects more portentous than ever.

A recent evaluation of the prospects of this monstrous new player on the stage of world history is anything but reassuring. ISIS, it seems, has acquired staying power.  It has, we are told, matured to the point that its existence no longer depends on the survival of particular leaders. While leadership is certainly important to the formation of groups like al-Qaeda or ISIS, "it is not essential to their continual operations.  Once the group is formed and the ideology is set, the group supersedes the charismatic individual who brought it all together. . . . As long as local conditions allow armed insurrection and disruption, groups such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, regardless of leadership, will thrive."  And since the U.S. invasion and demolition of Iraq created such conditions, it follows that the Islamic State will continue to play a role in the historic amphitheater of Mesopotamia and Greater Syria, what University of Chicago anthropologist James Henry Breasted called the Fertile Crescent, for some time to come.

What should the United States do? As UFPPC said in a statement last year, "The Islamic State’s proclaimed caliphate constitutes a pressing international problem.  But an American-led military coalition is not the appropriate international response."

Though it's hard for American politicians to fathom, or rather, to admit, at this point the only legitimacy the United States can plausibly claim in fighting ISIS is self-defense. The United States cannot punish crimes and right wrongs in the Middle East for the simple reason that our leaders committed there the supreme crime of aggressive war.  They are the proximate cause of the present evil, not its remedy.  In 2003 they embarked on a war that tortured international law as well as human beings, clashed with fundamental American values, undermined international institutions, and (it is now apparent) endangered the security of all.  They violated our laws and principles to an extent that even now few Americans understand.  Until Americans admit this, what hope is there of adopting sound policy?

The fall of Ramadi and Palmyra is cause for great concern. The progress of the Islamic State and the horrific exactions it imposes wherever it triumphs are an affront to every humane value.  But at this juncture Americans should not demand that their government take charge of another war.  Such a war is likely to make matters even worse – is making matters worse.  No, now is a time for our leaders to cover themselves in sackcloth and sit in ashes.  As for the rest of us, it is time for us to redouble our efforts to set our own house in order, to support efforts to rein in the Patriot Act and take power back from the shadowy, undemocratic agencies that now hold the whip hand in the American system of government.  Many doubt that this is even possible, when the national security state has made so much of the United States Constitution a dead letter.  But patriots like Edward Snowden do not believe it is too late.

UNITED FOR PEACE OF PIERCE COUNTY

"We nonviolently oppose the reliance on unilateral military actions rather than cooperative diplomacy."