NO EASY IN-AND-OUT FOR U.S. IN SUDAN
By James P. Pinkerton

Newsday
July 6, 2004

Original source: Newsday

Everybody seems to agree that the United States should do something about Sudan.

But is anybody thinking seriously about the cost to America? Or the chances that we can succeed in truly helping?

The Sudanese crisis -- tens of thousands massacred, more than a million displaced in just one province, Darfur -- has united the American establishment.

The New York Times editorializes for "strong action," while Rich Lowry of National Review, invoking the memory of past genocides, declares, "If 'never again' is to mean anything, it must mean something now." Rep. Donald Payne (D-N.J.), a past chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus, has been working the cable news circuit, pushing for U.S. intervention, and many Capitol Hill Republicans want to help, too. Republican Sens. Mike DeWine of Ohio and John McCain of Arizona wrote recently in the Washington Post, "The United States must stand ready to do what it can to stop the massacres."

In truth, the situation in Sudan is a harmonic convergence for both the neoconservative right and the traditional left. The Bush administration, stung by accusations that it has been polarizingly "unilateralist" on Iraq, is looking for an opportunity to show that it can work multilaterally with the United Nations. Secretary General Kofi Annan recently made a high-profile trip to Sudan, where he and Secretary of State Colin Powell agreed that attention must be paid.

Meanwhile, Democrats, on the defensive over the perception that they aren't "tough enough," see Sudan as their chance to show that they can support robust American action around the world.

But before the United States rushes into its next rendezvous with faraway destiny, we might note a few difficult realities. For starters, Sudan's 39 million people are spread over a million square miles, an area almost twice the size of Alaska.

And here's how the CIA's World Fact Book describes Sudan's situation: "Military regimes favoring Islamic-oriented governments have dominated national politics since independence from the United Kingdom in 1956. Sudan has been embroiled in a civil war for all but 10 years of this period (1972-82). The wars are rooted in northern economic, political, and social domination of non-Muslim, non-Arab southern Sudanese."

What does one say about a country that has been in a state of civil war for 38 of its 48 years of existence? These wars, in total, have caused the death of perhaps 3 million people. Given this history, does American intervention have the makings of an easy in-and-out, or might the problems take years -- or maybe eternity -- to resolve?

To be sure, nobody in Washington is talking about a major commitment of American resources. But Washingtonians never do, of course -- on the way in. Almost all of Uncle Sam's commitments start out "minor," never "major." Consider, for example, the Middle East. In the '40s, we began guaranteeing the security of two small countries, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Today, we have de facto responsibility -- and vulnerability -- in an area that stretches from Egypt to Pakistan, including hundreds of millions of people, some of whom love us, many of whom hate us.

And now we want to add the largest country in Africa? We went into nearby Somalia with the best of intentions in 1992, although we had no clue, to be sure, about the local language and culture. And we turned friends into foes, ending up with "Black Hawk Down."

Perhaps we must help in Sudan. But if so, let's consider that a state that's perpetually wracked by civil war might be in need of partition, not peacekeeping. There was no historic Sudan; its borders were the counterintuitive creation of long-ago British colonialists. But today, if Arabs and Africans can't get along in the same country, perhaps they shouldn't be in the same country.

But rather than a review of geopolitical first principles, all that's heard in Washington today is, "Do something!" And that's never the beginning of a promising policy, even if just about everyone is on board.

Email: pinkerto@ix.netcom.com