According to Stratfor, the reports we discussed yesterday of three U.S. strike forces en route to the Persian Gulf are not to be believed, despite their wide currency. -- "There is not yet credible reason for concern based on the information available about the disposition of the U.S. Fleet," the private intelligence company said late Tuesday, publishing a map that according to which "the U.S. carrier fleet was in one of its most relaxed postures."[1] -- "However, should we see the Reagan transit the Strait of Malacca and another carrier transit the Strait of Gibraltar, we will certainly have more to say at that point." ...
1. U.S. NAVAL UPDATE MAP: AUG. 12, 2008 Stratfor
August 12, 2008 -- 22:38 GMT http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/u_s_naval_update_map_aug_12_2008 The Naval Update Map shows an approximation of the current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Expeditionary Strike Groups (ESGs), the keys to U.S. dominance of the world’s oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air power and supports a carrier air wing. An ESG is centered on a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), a heavily reinforced and mobile battalion of Marines. Each is equipped with a significant offensive strike capability. The map is updated weekly, based on available open-source information. Stratfor’s weekly U.S. Naval Update, which is usually published every Wednesday, has been released early this week in response to a number of inquiries from our readers. After our Aug. 6 Update, the *Kuwait Times* published a story -- since widely circulated -- that the U.S. Navy was surging multiple carriers to the Gulf. The U.S. Navy has already denied this report. As the Aug. 6 Update showed, the U.S. carrier fleet was in one of its most relaxed postures, with a single carrier -- the Lincoln -- in 5th Fleet, and a single carrier -- the Reagan -- in 7th Fleet near Japan. The rest of the “armada” was operating fairly close to the U.S. East or West Coast. According to the U.S. Navy, on Aug. 12 the only carriers currently under way are the Lincoln and the Reagan. The Lincoln began its current deployment on March 13, and the Reagan may replace it in the 5th Fleet (the Reagan began its deployment on May 19). It is not uncommon for these carriers to train together during a handover, but Washington has not chosen to maintain two carriers in the region since 2007. However, the U.S. Navy adopted the Fleet Response Plan (FRP) in 2003 in order to maximize the readiness of its carrier fleet to ensure this very capability at all times. While the traditional six-month deployments continue, the FRP places greater emphasis on ensuring that employable carriers are in a state of surge readiness -- that is, they can be deployed within 30 days. As such, it is not unusual to see carriers conduct qualifications at sea even when they are not about to be deployed. In sum, a surge of three carriers to the 5th Fleet would indeed be a noteworthy event, but there is not yet credible reason for concern based on the information available about the disposition of the U.S. Fleet. However, should we see the Reagan transit the Strait of Malacca and another carrier transit the Strait of Gibraltar, we will certainly have more to say at that point. [MAP]
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