War has broken out between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia. -- The Financial Times reported early Saturday that the U.N. Security Council has met twice in the past 24 hours, and that each side was leveling charges of ethnic cleansing.[1] -- Charles Clover and Harvey Morris said that "Irakli Alasania, Georgian envoy to the U.N., said Russian air attacks had extended to Abkhazia, another breakaway territory in Georgia." -- U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, in Beijing for the opening of the 2008 Olympic Games, "discussed the situation" while U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called on Russia to "withdraw its ground combat forces from Georgian soil.” -- A separate Financial Times reported failure of diplomacy to quell fighting as the Georgian government announced that "Russia completely devastated the port of Poti on the Black Sea, which is a key port for the transportation of energy sources from the Caspian Sea and is close to the Baku-Supsa pipeline and the Supsa oil terminal."[2] -- In an editorial, the Financial Times, perhaps inevitably, took the side of Georgia, calling Russian actions "nonsense": "Mr. Putin (and Dmitry Medvedev, his anointed successor) seem to want to prove two things: that Georgia is far too unstable to join NATO, and that they alone can determine the future of the former Soviet space. They are right that neither the U.S. alone, nor the NATO allies, would dream of intervening in a military confrontation. But Georgia is only unstable because of Russian policies. Encouraging secessionists sends a terrible signal to others inside Russia, especially in the rebellious north Caucasus. Moscow’s policy may be macho, but in the long run it will be utterly self-defeating."[3] -- But the Financial Times editorial was utterly vague about what can be expected in the short term. -- Another piece reviewed the history of the conflict, and concluded by quoting a Carnegie Moscow Center analyst, who said: "I am afraid this is just the beginning of a much, much bigger problem.”[4] -- In the latest news available late Friday night Pacific time (about 08:30 UTC Saturday, or about 12:30 p.m. in Tbilisi, Voice of America reported intensifying fighting, with South Ossetian separatist leader Eduard Kokoity saying that "about 1,400 people have been killed."[5] -- Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said he has ordered "an all-out offensive to regain control of South Ossetia," accusing Russia of waging war on Georgia, while "Russia said its troops were responding to a Georgian assault to retake South Ossetia." -- BACKGROUND: In a recent book, Michael T. Klare gives some useful background on this geopolitical struggle: "Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, substantial Russian troop detachments have been stationed in the Republic of Georgia, a pro-Western nation that enjoys warm ties with Washington and would prefer to see all the Russians depart. Two of the four Russian contingents are stationed in rebellious, breakaway regions of Georgia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. They are supposedly serving in a 'peacekeeping' capacity, officially monitoring a cease-fire between separatists forces and Georgian government troops. However, Moscow can hardly claim to be netural in these disputes: In November 2006, its officials gave tacit approval to declarations by Abkhazian and South Ossetian leaders of their intent to sever all ties with Georgia and amalgamate with Russia [Note 65: Vladimir Socor, 'Moscow Hosts Three Secessionist Leaders,' Eurasia Daily Monitor, November 20, 2006, electronic document accessed at www.jamestown.org on November 20, 2006]. (Moscow reiterated its threat to amalgamate these territories in February 2008, as potential retaliation for the West's recognition of an independent Kosovo. As for the other two detachments, they are at former Soviet bases that have never been abandoned, despite numerous promises. Moscow agreed in May 2005 to redeploy the two garrisons to Russia as part of a political accommodation with Tbilisi, but then suspended the move in September 2006 after Georgia arrested five Russian military officers as alleged spies[Note 66: David Holley, 'Russia Puts Base Closures on Ice,' Los Angeles Times, October 1, 2006.]. -- While these militarized maneuverings can be read as part of an ongoing effort to force Georgia's pro-Western leadership to pay greater deference to Moscow, they must also be viewed in light of Russia's larger geopolitical struggle with the United States over the flow of Caspian basin energy. Three of the four Russian contingents are located with in a relatively short distance of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, the 1,100-mile conduit built with considerable American backing to transport Azerbaijani (and possibly Kazakh) oil from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean. As part of the $1 billion U.S. aid program for Georgia, the Department of Defense has deployed over 100 military instructors in Tbilisi to train Georgian troops in basic combat skills and help prepare them to assume responsibility for protecting the pipeline [Note 67: DoS, 'U.S. Assistance to Georgia -- Fiscal Year 2005,' July 29, 2005, electronic document accessed at www.state.gov on December 21, 2006. See also 'Azerbaijan, Georgia Address Security Threats to BTC Pipeline,' Oil and Gas Journal Online, January 23, 2003, electronic document accessed at www.ogi.pennet.com on January 24, 2003.]. . . . on all sides, the stakes are already sky-high. Neither Moscow nor Washington will voluntarily give ground on the basing issue in the Caspian Sea region, so American and Russian troop contingents are likely to remain in relatively close proximity in the political equivalent of an active earthquake zone. One great peril is that these contingents may find themselves on opposite sides of a developing civil war or ethnic conflict from which easy extrication proves impossible. It is in precisely such unpredictable circumstances that a process of unintended escalation can be triggered" (Michael T. Klare, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy [New York: Metropolitan Books/Henry Holt, 2008], pp. 225-27)....
1. World GEORGIA SAYS RUSSIA AT WAR By Charles Clover (Moscow) and Harvey Morris (United Nations) Financial Times (London) August 8, 2008 (updated Aug. 9) http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/35d712be-6574-11dd-a352-0000779fd18c.html Diplomats scrambled on Friday night to avert a wider crisis after the Russian military clashed with Georgian government forces in South Ossetia in the worst fighting in the breakaway enclave for nearly 20 years. At the U.N. in New York, Russia and Georgia traded accusations of ethnic cleansing during the Security Council’s second emergency session on the crisis within 24 hours. Irakli Alasania, Georgian envoy to the U.N., said Russian air attacks had extended to Abkhazia, another breakaway territory in Georgia. Russia’s Vitaly Churkin said the Georgian authorities were to blame for the flight of civilians following their destruction of schools and hospitals in South Ossetia. The crisis could bring Moscow into confrontation with Washington, which backs Georgia. Condoleezza Rice, U.S. secretary of state, said: “The United States calls for an immediate ceasefire to the armed conflict in Georgia’s region of South Ossetia. We call on Russia to cease attacks on Georgia by aircraft and missiles, respect Georgia’s territorial integrity, and withdraw its ground combat forces from Georgian soil.” In Beijing, U.S. president George W. Bush and Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin, both attending the Olympics opening ceremony, discussed the situation. Russia intervened to back the separatist government in South Ossetia and a small Russian peacekeeping force after the Georgian army began asserting control over the region on Thursday night. Georgia said it reserved the right to use all means to protect its civilian population. President Mikheil Saakashvili told CNN: “We have Russian tanks moving in. We have continuous Russian bombardment since yesterday . . . specifically targeting the civilian population . . . Russia is fighting a war with us in our own territory.” In another televised address he put the Georgian death toll at 30. Mr. Putin condemned “aggressive actions” by Georgian troops and said Russia would be compelled to retaliate. “They have in effect begun hostilities using tanks and artillery. It is sad, but this will provoke retaliatory measures.” Last spring, Georgia began negotiations to join NATO, angering Russia. Moscow has always supported the South Ossetian government, as well as the neighboring region of Abkhazia, and Georgia accuses Russia of seeking to annex the two territories, which Russia denies. 2. World U.N. ROW FLARES OVER OSSETIA CONFLICT By Harvey Morris (New York), Roman Olearchyk (Tbilisi), Catherine Belton (Moscow), and agencies Financial Times (London) August 9, 2008 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/afb43a10-65a3-11dd-a352-0000779fd18c.html The conflict that erupted on Thursday between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia escalated on Friday night amid claims and counter-claims of actions by the two countries and urgent international peace efforts. Condoleezza Rice, U.S. secretary of state, called for an immediate ceasefire in the breakaway enclave backed by Russia, and U.S. officials said they would send an envoy to the region to help mediate. Officials said Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s pro-Western president, planned to declare martial law in the next few hours as it battled to get control of the rebel enclave. At the United Nations Security Council, Russia and Georgia traded accusations of ethnic cleansing during a tense debate called to try to reach consensus on a ceasefire in South Ossetia. “They are about to bomb the civilian population as they did in the past 24 hours,” said Irakli Alasania, Georgian envoy to the U.N., in a heated exchange with Russia’s Vitaly Churkin. “What are we going to do?” The council’s second attempt within 24 hours to agree on a statement about the South Ossetia crisis led to a bitter debate between the two envoys. Mr. Alasania -- invited to attend the session -- quoted what he said was the latest information from his capital, Tbilisi, saying Russian air attacks had now extended to Abkhazia, another breakaway territory of Georgia. Mr. Churkin, dismissing Georgian “slanders,” said the Georgian authorities were to blame for the civilian flight following their destruction of schools and hospitals in South Ossetia. He said Georgian forces had attacked the headquarters of Russian peacekeepers in the territory -- a charge the Georgian envoy denied. In an open session, individual representatives of the Security Council member states called for an immediate ceasefire. Mr. Churkin made no reference to claims that the Russians had bombed targets outside the enclave of South Ossetia. In Moscow, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister, told the Financial Times he could not confirm claims of hackers attacking Georgian government websites. Zalmay Khalilzad, U.S. envoy, called on Russia to end aerial and missile attacks and remove ground troops from Georgian territory. The U.S. and other Western governments -- in support of Georgia -- had objected to a demand in an earlier Russian draft statement on the crisis that would have required both sides in the conflict to renounce the use of force. Georgia said it reserved the right to use all means to protect its civilian population in the absence of a negotiated settlement. In Tbilisi, the government issued a statement saying: “Georgian government sources have confirmed that the Russian Federation air force has launched aggressive aerial attacks against civilian and military targets in Georgia. “This evening, Russia completely devastated the port of Poti on the Black Sea, which is a key port for the transportation of energy sources from the Caspian Sea and is close to the Baku-Supsa pipeline and the Supsa oil terminal. This act of aggression violates all international war conventions.” 3. Comment & analysis Editorial comment RUSSIA IS ASKING FOR TROUBLE IN GEORGIA Financial Times (London) August 8, 2009 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/830edc3a-656d-11dd-a352-0000779fd18c.html Mighty Russia, population 150m, and tiny Georgia, population 4.6m, its former colony and now fiercely independent neighbor, are in terrible danger of blundering into a bloody and pointless conflict in the Caucasus. It would sorely damage relations between Moscow, the European Union, and the U.S. It could also destabilize the rest of the Caucasus region. Washington and Brussels can urge restraint, but the only country that can stop the nonsense is Russia itself. The immediate cause of the conflict is a tug-of-war over the secessionist region of South Ossetia, which has been trying to break away from Georgia since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It is an ethnic patchwork of mountain villages, part-Ossetian and part-Georgian, with just 70,000 inhabitants, divided between pro-Russian and pro-Georgian administrations, and lacking any common identity. A fragile ceasefire since 1992 has been regularly broken. This week it collapsed again, after a series of bloody skirmishes, with Georgian troops moving in to seize the capital, Tskhinvali, and a column of tanks and troops moving over the Russian border to stop them. Russian aircraft have attacked targets inside the undisputed territory of Georgia, including a radar installation. Both Vladimir Putin, the Russian premier, and Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian president, have called the confrontation “war.” Russia has long ceased to pretend to be a neutral referee. It openly espouses the cause of the secessionists there and in Abkhazia, another breakaway enclave. Its actions seem aimed at deliberately destabilizing its neighbor. In recent months -- especially since Georgia was promised eventual membership of NATO at the alliance’s Bucharest summit in April -- Moscow has stepped up its encouragement, reinforcing its troops and trade, as if deliberately taunting Tbilisi and daring its hot-headed president to respond. Now the inevitable has happened. Mr. Saakashvili does not want to take on Moscow. But Mr. Putin (and Dmitry Medvedev, his anointed successor) seem to want to prove two things: that Georgia is far too unstable to join NATO, and that they alone can determine the future of the former Soviet space. They are right that neither the U.S. alone, nor the NATO allies, would dream of intervening in a military confrontation. But Georgia is only unstable because of Russian policies. Encouraging secessionists sends a terrible signal to others inside Russia, especially in the rebellious north Caucasus. Moscow’s policy may be macho, but in the long run it will be utterly self-defeating. 4. World BATTLE OF FEINTS EXPLODES INTO HEAVY FIGHTING By Charles Clover Financial Times (London) August 8, 2008 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8e3bce04-656f-11dd-a352-0000779fd18c.html MOSCOW -- Hostility between Ossetians and Georgians stretches back at least as far as 1839 when Mikhail Lermontov, wrote “Demon,” a poem about the enmities that pervade life in the high mountains of the Caucasus. When a Georgian prince was ambushed on his way to his wedding, “the wicked bullet of the Ossetian / found him in the darkness”, Lermontov wrote. As Russia stood on the brink of war with Georgia over control of South Ossetia yesterday, the words were a useful reminder that things have changed little in a century and a half. Historically, Russia has played off tribes and ethnic groups against one another in a bid to divide and rule the troublesome region. The three-sided conflict between South Ossetia, Georgia, and Russia harks back to old imperial policy. Ossetia was independent of Georgia but was absorbed into the Russian empire with Georgia, in 1801, and when the Soviet republic of Georgia was formed, following the revolution of 1917, the southern part of Ossetia became part of it. North Ossetia stayed in Russia. As the USSR collapsed in 1991, South Ossetians moved to reclaim their independence from Georgia and, aided by Moscow, fought a brief civil war, broke away and began running their own affairs. The Georgian government claims that Moscow supported and continues to support the rebels. After the introduction of Russian peacekeepers into the region, Georgia plausibly claimed that the Russian garrison of 1,000 tacitly supported the rebels. For the 12 years following the civil war an uneasy truce reigned between Tbilisi and the breakaway capital in Tskhinvali. But this changed with the election of Mikheil Saakashvili as president of Georgia in 2004. The U.S.-backed Mr. Saakashvili made restoration of the territorial integrity of Georgia his priority. Neighboring Abkhazia, another Russia-backed breakaway region, and South Ossetia once again became the site of sporadic fighting as Tbilisi unsuccessfully tried to retake the regions. Its efforts included setting up a rival government to the Russian-backed Eduard Kokoity in South Ossetia. Since November 2006 Tbilisi has supported an alternative de facto South Ossetian administration led by Dmitri Sanakoev. With two competing governments struggling for legitimacy, an inexperienced and easily provoked Georgian government in Tbilisi, and an increasingly belligerent and assertive Russia under the leadership of Vladimr Putin, the situation was ripe to get out of control. The flames were fanned by increasing distrust between Russia and the U.S. as each jostled for influence in the region -- the U.S. supporting the Georgian government and Russia supporting the separatists. This spring negotiations between Georgia and NATO over Georgia’s possible accession to the Atlantic alliance shocked Russia, which is deeply opposed to the movement of NATO closer to its borders. According to Dmitri Trenin, analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, the Russian position on Georgia’s NATO bid was that “they can either be in NATO or they can have Abkhazia and South Ossetia.” Since the NATO bid, he said, the two sides had been engaged in a low-key battle of feints, deceptions, and provocations -- each trying to provoke the other into showing itself to be irresponsible and aggressive. “The Georgians have been trying to get the Russians to show their true colors, that they are empire-minded and expansionist,” Mr. Trenin said. And that would help the pro-Western government convince the West that it needed the protection of NATO membership. For their part, the Russians were doing their best to provoke the Georgian government “to show them to be irresponsible firebrands” and thus unfit for NATO membership, he said. The spark came last Friday, with the heaviest fighting since 2004. A Western diplomat in Tbilisi who had travelled to Tskhinvali said it was difficult to tell who started shooting first. “What is clear is that last Friday there was a bomb attack on a Georgian vehicle, which injured six people; a response from Georgia, which ended up killing six on the south Ossetian side; then a pause; and then heavy fighting resumed,” the diplomat said. With Georgian forces seemingly in a pitched battle with Russian peacekeepers around Tskhinvali, and the arrival of Russian forces as reinforcements, Mr. Trenin said: “I am afraid this is just the beginning of a much, much bigger problem.” 5. FIGHTING BETWEEN RUSSIAN, GEORGIAN FORCES INTENSIFIES Voice of America News August 9, 2008 http://voanews.com/english/2008-08-09-voa3.cfm Fierce fighting is continuing between Russian and Georgian forces in Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia, forcing hundreds of civilians to flee their homes. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said his troops in the area started an operation Saturday designed to force a cease-fire and protect civilians. Hundreds of people have been reported killed in the fighting that has been intensifying around the regional capital, Tskhinvali. Some residents say parts of the city are in smoldering ruins with bodies strewn in the streets. A Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman, Shota Utiashvili, accuses Russia of carrying out airstrikes on Georgian military bases not far from the capital of Tblisi. He also says Russian airplanes bombed the Black Sea port city of Poti, which is home to key oil shipping facilities. GEORGIA BATTLES TO REGAIN CONTROL OF REGION Georgian forces began an operation late Thursday to regain control of South Ossetia from Russia-backed separatists. Russia responded by sending its forces in. Russia accuses Tblisi of "ethnic cleansing," and says 15 Russian peacekeepers have been killed since the fighting began. Officials say additional troops have been sent to the region. South Ossetian separatist leader Eduard Kokoity says about 1,400 people have been killed. The New York-based human rights group, Human Rights Watch, says a Russian agency reports almost 1,000 people have sought refuge in the Russian province of North Ossetia. People who have managed to flee the fighting say those left behind are trying to take cover in basements and underground shelters. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said Friday he ordered an all-out offensive to regain control of South Ossetia. He accused Russia of waging war on Georgia. Russia said its troops were responding to a Georgian assault to retake South Ossetia. FIGHTING SPREADS Georgia's ambassador to the United Nations, Irakli Alasania, told the U.N. Security Council that Russian bombers also are attacking parts of Abkhazia, Georgia's other breakaway region. He said Georgian government buildings in Tblisi are being evacuated. South Ossetia declared independence from Georgia in the early 1990s, sparking fighting and the dispatch of Russian peacekeepers. Georgia accuses the peacekeepers of backing the separatists and has vowed to bring South Ossetia back under central government control. |