1.

IRAN EXTENDS DEADLINE FOR EU NUCLEAR PROPOSALS

Reuters
August 1, 2005

Original source: Reuters

TEHRAN -- Iran said on Monday it had extended by one day its deadline for the European Union to submit proposals to solve a diplomatic impasse over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.

"This is the last day that the Europeans can offer their proposal," Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters. He added EU diplomats had until 5 p.m. (1230 GMT) to hand over their package of proposals.

2.

IRAN TO RESUME NUCLEAR WORK

AFP
August 1, 2005

http://www.news24.com/News24/World/News/0,,2-10-1462_1746949,00.html

TEHRAN -- Iran said it would resume limited sensitive nuclear work on Monday whether or not it received European proposals aimed at ending a long-running standoff.

"We will resume activities this evening in Isfahan," an official said on condition of anonymity, referring to a facility for uranium conversion, a phase in the nuclear fuel cycle.

Iran's action risks it being hauled before the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions, an action long demanded by the United States.

It was reported on Sunday that at least three days would be needed to convene an emergency meeting of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency if the crisis over Iran's nuclear program were to escalate, an agency spokesperson said.

It would take "at least 72 hours" to convene a session in Vienna of the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) 35-nation board of governors, which could then send the Iranian dossier to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions against Tehran.

DAMAGING STEP

Britain warned Iran on Sunday against taking the "damaging step" of resuming nuclear fuel work and said that if the Iranians persisted, the EU "will as a first step consult urgently with our partners on the board of the IAEA, which is monitoring Iran's nuclear" activities.

The IAEA has been investigating Iran's nuclear program since February 2003 on U.S. charges that the Islamic republic is secretly developing nuclear weapons.

The United States wants Iran brought before the Security Council but is backing a European Union diplomatic effort to get Iran to guarantee it will not make nuclear weapons.

The IAEA currently has inspectors in Iran, although not necessarily at the uranium conversion site in Isfahan where the Iranians plan on resuming work related to uranium enrichment, a diplomat in Vienna said.

Enrichment is the process that makes fuel for civilian nuclear power plants, but this material can also be the explosive core of nuclear bombs.

3.

World

Middle East

IRAN IN SHOWDOWN WITH EU OVER ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS
By Anne Penketh

Independent (UK)
August 1, 2005

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article302911.ece

Iran faces a breakdown of talks with European countries and is in danger of being referred to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions after announcing that it will resume nuclear-related activities today.

The country confirmed last night that it would resume uranium conversion at its Isfahan facility. Iranian officials said the unilateral move is in retaliation for Britain, France and Germany failing to submit a package of guarantees before an Iranian deadline of lunchtime yesterday.

The Foreign Office urged Iran to back away from its threat to resume the uranium-related activities, which would breach an agreement reached with the three countries -- known as the E3 -- in November last year.

A Foreign Office statement said that such a unilateral move would be "unnecessary and damaging."

The negotiations between Iran and the Europeans have stumbled from crisis to crisis since Tehran agreed to suspend its uranium-related activities to reassure the West that it is not bent on developing nuclear weapons. The U.S. and Israel are convinced that Tehran is using the cover of a civilian program to produce a nuclear bomb -- which the Iranians deny.

A senior official involved in the negotiations said last night that this time, the crisis was "more serious" than in the past, because it comes days before the inauguration of Iran's new hardline President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on Wednesday.

Diplomats believe the Iranian authorities want to decide on the future of their talks with the Europeans before Mr. Ahmadinejad is sworn in next Saturday, so that any radical policy change would be seen as having been approved by the outgoing president, Mohammed Khatami.

In recent weeks, Iranian officials have made it clear that they are becoming impatient with the negotiations dragging on, even as the Europeans prepared to deliver their proposals on security and economic guarantees for Iran.

It is understood that the E3 has been preparing formally to issue a commitment not to use force against Iran, to consider Iran a chief source of energy for Europe and to support Iran's membership in the World Trade Organization.

Iran's chief negotiator, Hasan Rowhani, said in a letter to President Khatami, released yesterday, that the E3 had been discussing "guarantees about Iran's integrity, independence, national sovereignty" and "non-aggression toward Iran".

But Tehran announced the Sunday deadline after receiving indications from the Europeans that they would submit their formal proposals before the end of this week -- setting the scene for a showdown.

The E3 has made no secret of the fact that if Iran were to breach the Paris agreement of November 2004, it would break off the negotiation process. The E3 would also report back to the International Atomic Energy Agency where the Americans have been pressing for a referral to the Security Council. It will also jeopardize its future prospects of economic cooperation with the West.

The IAEA still has questions about Iran's nuclear activities. The Europeans feel they must have objective guarantees about Iran's intentions because Tehran deceived the U.N. nuclear watchdog about its nuclear program for 18 years.

Until now, the E3 has held back from recommending referring Iran to the Security Council because of a lack of consensus on the 15-member body.

But Iran may feel it has enough allies on the council to block a censure.

4.

NEW ESTIMATES ON IRANIAN NUKES
By Orly Halpern

Jerusalem Post
August 1, 2005

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1122776414371

Israel has adjusted its estimates of when it believes Iran will have nuclear bombs due to the belief that that Iran no longer runs independent military and civilian nuclear development programs. According to the new estimates, Iran will probably have a nuclear bomb by 2012, but could have the capability as early as 2008 "if all goes well for it," a high ranking IDF commander told the Jerusalem Post yesterday.

"We no longer think that a secret military track runs independent of the civilian one," said the officer in an interview at IDF Headquarters in Tel-Aviv. "If it were then they could acquire weapons in 2007 . . . We have changed our estimation. Now we think the military track is dependent on the civilian one. However, from a certain point it will be able to run independently. But not earlier than 2008."

Iran has been developing nuclear capacity which, it says, is only for peaceful civilian purposes allowed under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. But many countries fear that Iran is secretly developing nuclear military capacity as well.

Last January IDF Intelligence Branch chief Maj.-Gen. Aharon Ze'evi Farkash said in a lecture at the University of Haifa's National Security Studies Center that if Teheran did not stop its uranium enrichment activities, it would develop its first atomic weapon between 2007 and 2009. He also said that Iran was six months away from enriching uranium required to build a nuclear bomb, a step that has been described as the "point of no return."

That date passed last month and Israel does not believe that Iran has yet achieved the enrichment milestone. The source now believes the "point of no return" could occur within a few months to a year.

The source gave no evidence for the allegations of a secret military tract but said that Israel has knowledge of individuals from the Iranian military and defense establishments who are involved in activities related to a nuclear program.

"We have seen for a few years activities of people not from the civilian program who are dealing in acquisition and research [of nuclear development], among other things," the source stated. "We don't know if they are a group, but they have linkage to military and defense ministries."

What most concerns Israel right now is the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran in 2008, especially given that the US is more concerned with the later possible date of 2012.

In November Iran voluntarily ceased its uranium enrichment program as as part of talks with France, Germany and Britain regarding its nuclear development program. Iran is threatening to renew its uranium enrichment process.