1.

U.S. TROOPS TO STAY IN IRAQ DESPITE 'PROGRESS'
By Charles Aldinger

Reuters
June 21, 2005

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050621/ts_nm/iraq_usa_dc_4

WASHINGTON -- Despite reported successes against the insurgency in Iraq, a top U.S. military commander said on Tuesday the United States was unlikely to reduce its 135,000 troops there before elections late this year.

"At this point, I would not be prepared to recommend a draw-down prior to the election, certainly not any significant numbers," Army Lt. Gen. John Vines, commander of coalition forces in Iraq, told reporters.

But Vines said significant reductions could begin early next year following a referendum on a planned constitution this October and a subsequent national election on a new Iraqi government in December.

Vines spoke a day after President Bush acknowledged the Iraq war was "tough" going. But Bush refused to back down from assertions that progress was being made.

With his popularity falling amid mounting casualties, Bush will spend the next few weeks defending the war and will make a speech to mark next Tuesday's anniversary of the transfer of sovereignty.

Since the United States formally turned over power to Iraq on June 28, 2004, more than 860 U.S. troops have been killed.

Vines said, "Since that time, there's been significant progress throughout the country."

More than 1,720 U.S. troops have died in Iraq and with 80 deaths, May was the deadliest month for American forces since January. The continued deployment of 135,000 U.S. troops in Iraq also is putting strains on the U.S. military and the Army has fallen far behind in its recruiting.

Vines said the insurgency was fueled by foreign fighters from such nations as Sudan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Egypt and was "driven in large measure by money." Ordinary Iraqis were paid from $150 to several hundred to plant bombs.

Bush has come under fire for an overly optimistic view of the war. Many have urged him to make a public acknowledgment of the difficulties facing the United States.

'AS BAD AS IT WAS'

The Democrats' leading foreign policy spokesman, Sen. Joseph Biden (news, bio, voting record), warned on Tuesday that Iraq's disintegration is a "real possibility" and proposed a plan to try and salvage the U.S. military intervention.

In a speech, Biden said the insurgency "remains as bad as it was a year ago."

An influential Republican lawmaker, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, however, said the U.S. effort in Iraq ranked as a 6 on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being disaster.

"The key to it is telling the American people it's going to be long and it's going to be hard," McCain told NBC's "Today" show.

Vines warned that polls in the United States showing a majority of Americans now oppose the U.S. military presence in Iraq suggested "they don't have a good perception of what is at stake here."

"There is a bit of a complacency with elements of our population," he said.

Speaking as U.S. and Iraq troops moved against insurgents in Iraq, Vines said the insurgency currently appeared to be "static," neither shrinking nor growing.

"I don't have any reason to believe there is going to be a significant change in four months, absent a political breakthrough," Vines said. "I suspect we will probably draw down capability after the elections because Iraqi security forces are more capable."

He said U.S. forces could be cut by four or five brigades early next year. An average American brigade numbers about 3,000 troops.

Some U.S. lawmakers, including a few from Bush's own Republican Party, have called for a deadline to begin withdrawing American troops.

But the White House and Pentagon have rejected that saying insurgents would simply wait for a withdrawal and then renew their violence.

In an opinion piece in the Washington Post, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said "much progress" had been made in Iraq in the past year.

"There will no doubt be frustrating delays and difficult setbacks. But let us not lose sight of the fact that all over Iraq today, Iraqis are debating nearly every aspect of their political future."

2.

YEP, THE MAN TO SEE
By Julian E. Barnes

** He's the guy in charge of all U.S. military operations in Iraq. Name? Gen. John Vines **

U.S. News & World Report
March 28, 2005

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/050328/28vines.htm

Last month, about a mile from the Khadamiya mosque, a center of Shiite religious life in Baghdad, American soldiers gathered with Iraqi commanders at an old military base to discuss how to prepare for Ashura, a Shiite religious celebration that would draw thousands to the neighborhood. In front of a table displaying a satellite image of the area, Col. Mark Milley of the 10th Mountain Division stood with Brig. Gen. Faisal Kasim Alewy, the commander of an Iraqi militia. As Iraqi and American officers listened, Alewy outlined how he planned to protect the mosque from insurgent attacks.

This is what Lt. Gen. John Vines, the new American commander responsible for day-to-day military operations in Iraq, says he wants to see more of: Iraqis and Americans working together to plan missions, and Iraqi forces taking more responsibility to protect key sites. The Ashura planning turned out to be a success, sort of; 23 Iraqi civilians and one American soldier were killed in a suicide attack, but Alewy's forces kept insurgents away from the mosque. Vines also points to successful efforts by Iraqis to protect mosques in Najaf and Karbala. "If you look at Ashura . . . though there was loss of life, the Iraqi security forces performed brilliantly," Vines says. "They have shown they are capable of great things."

Transition. During the next year, the top priority for the American commanders will be figuring out how to perfect this relationship. Vines held a conference this month with American and Iraqi military commanders to review their responsibilities and operations. Already, Iraqi duties are growing: Last week, the Iraqi Army helped with security for the opening session of the new National Assembly, arresting suspects throwing grenades and a man transporting mortar tubes. "The most important thing is that the Iraqi citizens believe that they are in control of their own destiny," Vines says. "So what they will see throughout the coming months, and years, are Iraqi police and the Army providing security throughout the area."

Although no one doubts the wisdom of training the Iraqi Army, there are questions about the process. Anthony Cordesman, a former Defense Department official, says Iraqis believe some of the American trainers are unprepared or treat them unfairly. Still, despite concerns about the Iraqi forces' capabilities, Cordesman says the Iraqi officials believe their Army is growing stronger.

Other military experts want to see American commanders discuss more than just building up the Iraqi Army. Andrew Krepinevich, executive director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, says U.S. commanders need to start talking about how they plan to use the Iraqi Army to defeat the insurgency. "You have to have a coherent strategy in a protracted conflict like this," Krepinevich said. "I don't see that kind of guiding hand." Some of those who know Vines feel he could be that "guiding hand." Buck Kernan, a retired general, says Vines is an expert planner. "His strategy will be twofold, how to defeat the terrorists and how to bring stability so we can withdraw," Kernan says. "He understands terrorism."

With his new post, Vines becomes the first general officer to command forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Steve England, who served as Vines's command sergeant major in Afghanistan, says the general moved easily between overseeing a combat mission, training the Afghan Army, and wooing recalcitrant warlords. "He'll fool you with the old country drawl," England says. "But he is very savvy. He understands the tactical requirements, and he understands the diplomatic requirements."

Vines's country drawl comes from having been raised in Alabama. Since leaving home, Vines, now 55, has served all over the world. He parachuted into Panama in 1989 as a battalion commander in the 82nd Airborne Division and led the same soldiers in the Gulf War.

His first weeks in Iraq have left him feeling optimistic, Vines says, in part because he believes the Americans have chosen the perfect thing in Iraq to pin their hopes on. "The Iraqi Army is held with considerable regard," he says. "They are respected by the populace." The coming year will test whether that judgment is right.