The Financial Times reported Wednesday that George W. Bush's national security team would meet Thursday to consider whether to change U.S. Iran policy and embrace the idea of offering Iran incentives in return for renouncing uranium-enrichment activities; the article also noted that at Tuesday's IAEA board meeting in Vienna, Jackie Sanders, the U.S. representative "warned that [the IAEA] 'cannot ignore forever its statutory obligation to report this matter to the United Nations Security Council' and, Colin Powell-like, enumerated "what she called a 'startling list of Iranian attempts to hide and mislead, and delay the work of IAEA inspectors.'"[1] -- The Los Angeles Times reported Wednesday that there was "a working lunch today at the White House that included Vice President Dick Cheney, National Security Advisor Steven Hadley and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, during which the issue was discussed," and that there were indications that an announcement of a change of policy was in the offing.[2] -- Reuters reported that the carrot that would be offered to Tehran would be that "the United States would not block Iran as it seeks to start the process of joining the World Trade Organization, and would not stand in the way of European allies if they want to sell Tehran parts for civilian aircraft," provided that Iran end the enrichment of uranium.[3] -- But Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei has already said that on principle it will not renounce what it considers its right to enrich uranium, and in any case these are rather meager inducements. -- The impending U.S. move would appear to be tactical rather than strategic: the U.S. may be trying to preparing to attempt a plausible case that Iran has refused reasonable diplomatic efforts so as to bolster its justification for resorting to the military measures -- measures that are already, in fact, beyond the planning stage and in the early stages of execution....
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World
Middle East & Africa
BUSH TEAM TO CONSIDER POLICY SHIFT ON IRAN
By Guy Dinmore (Washington), Dan Dombey (Brussels), and Gareth Smyth (Tehran)
Financial Times (UK)
March 2, 2005
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1dee04b0-8b65-11d9-ae03-00000e2511c8.html
President George W. Bush meets members of his national security team on Thursday to discuss whether to adopt a big shift in U.S. policy that would involve joining Europe in offering inducements to Iran to end enrichment of uranium.
A U.S. official said he did not expect a decision to emerge from the first top-level session that stems directly from the commitment made by Mr. Bush to "consider" the proposals put to him by European leaders last month.
Mr. Bush's readiness to change course is seen as a vital test of the future of the transatlantic relationship. It also sparked an intense debate in Washington, with hardline conservatives expressing shock that Mr. Bush might even contemplate a policy of de facto engagement with Iran even if conducted through the European Union.
However, senior officials argue that the U.S. must form a united front with Europe over Iran. They reason that the U.S. must prepare the diplomatic ground for joint action in the event -- which they fully anticipate -- that Iran breaks off the negotiations begun in 2003 with France, Germany and the U.K. and resumes its suspected weapons program.
Possible incentives include allowing Iran to start talks on accession to the World Trade Organisation, unblocking sales of aircraft and spares, and possibly some kind of security initiative.
In return, the U.S. wants from the EU a firm commitment on what action it would consider if Iran resumed the uranium enrichment development it mostly froze in 2003.
A senior Iranian official in Tehran told the Financial Times that while France was "open and understanding of Iran's position," Germany was "confused" and the U.K. was "taking a greater distance over the past 20 days."
"So far they have given us nothing. And if Iran is not given the minimum, then there is no choice for us but to leave the talks," he said. "The minimum is a certain number of centrifuges with which we resume enrichment."
Addressing a board meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna yesterday, Jackie Sanders, the U.S. representative, warned that it "cannot ignore forever its statutory obligation to report this matter to the United Nations Security Council".
Ms. Sanders listed what she called a "startling list of Iranian attempts to hide and mislead, and delay the work of IAEA inspectors."
Mr. Bush's meeting on Thursday will be with Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state, and Stephen Hadley, national security adviser.
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BUSH, ADVISORS WEIGH IRAN INITIATIVE
By Tyler Marshall
Los Angeles Times
March 2, 2005
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-030205usiran_lat,0,6129689.story
WASHINGTON -- President Bush and his closest foreign policy advisors convene Thursday to grapple with an important shift in U.S. policy toward Iran: how best to support a European diplomatic initiative to prevent Tehran from becoming a nuclear weapons state.
The discussions follow a working lunch today at the White House that included Vice President Dick Cheney, National Security Advisor Steven Hadley and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, during which the issue was discussed, according to administration officials.
Rice attended the lunch shortly after returning from London, where she conferred on the fringes of a Middle East conference with foreign ministers of the initiative's three main sponsors -- Britain, France and Germany. Following those consultations Rice used the clearest language yet to signal an impending shift of direction for the United States in its approach on Iran.
"I've had further discussions with my European colleagues and we are designing, I think, an important common strategy with Europe so that Iran knows there is no other way," Rice said in an interview with NBC released today.
"We've said we support the diplomacy, that this issue can be resolved diplomatically if there is a common front, and that is what the president is looking at."
Rice avoided any details in her comments and a senior administration official labeled as "premature" any talk of precisely what the United States might offer or how it would otherwise support Europe's talks with Tehran.
Europe and the United States have both concluded there is strong evidence to indicate that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, but have differed strongly over how to prevent it.
Europeans are working to negotiate trade-offs in which Tehran gives up all aspects of a nuclear weapons quest in return for economic and technology assistance plus security guarantees. The United States has flatly refused to hold any direct talks with Iran.
During most of Bush's first term, American diplomatic efforts on Iran focused mainly on trying to convince members of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency's governing board to haul Tehran before the U.N. Security Council for alleged violations of the 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
While the Security Council could theoretically invoke punitive sanctions against Iran, the policy has been criticized as leading to a dead-end, because two of the three European sponsors of the diplomatic initiative -- Britain and France -- have veto power on the council.
Neoconservative voices within the Bush administration and the Republican Party have acted to reinforce the U.S. refusal to engage Iran, arguing that any official contact would only strengthen the Islamic fundamentalist government.
Indications of a U.S. policy shift first came last week, after Bush notably softened his language on the European-Iranian talks, seeming to distance himself from his long-held conviction that engaging Tehran diplomatically on the nuclear issue was a futile and dangerous waste of time.
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Top News
Article
BUSH LEANING TOWARD BACKING EUROPE ON IRAN
By Steve Holland
Reuters
March 2, 2005
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=7790166
WASHINGTON -- President Bush is leaning toward backing Europe in offering incentives to Iran aimed at persuading Tehran to give up its nuclear ambitions, U.S. officials said on Thursday [sic -- this article was posted on Wednesday! -- R.T.].
Under the emerging strategy, the United States would not block Iran as it seeks to start the process of joining the World Trade Organization, and would not stand in the way of European allies if they want to sell Tehran parts for civilian aircraft, the officials said.
An announcement of the president's strategy could come this week, the officials said.
In exchange for not standing in the way of the incentives, the United States would insist that Iran abandon uranium enrichment, a demand Tehran so far has refused to accept.
Some U.S. officials believe offering incentives will strengthen the international community's hand by providing a united front for punitive measures, such as U.N. sanctions, if the incentives do not work.
Supporting Europe on the incentives would mark a significant shift in strategy for Bush, who has been reluctant to consider them before to avoid being seen as rewarding Iran for bad behavior.
Before a European trip last week, Bush talked of taking Iran to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions, and officials believe that still may be necessary depending on how Iran responds.
White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Bush had not made a final decision and declined to discuss any details.
He said the United States and Europe are discussing "how we can move forward together on a common strategy to get Iran to abandon any ambitions for a nuclear weapon."
"We want to do our part to support the European efforts. This is about strengthening their diplomatic approach to resolving this matter," he said.
Bush met with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Wednesday upon her return from London, where she discussed Iran with the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany. Bush planned more talks with her on Thursday.
The United States accuses Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons under cover of its civil nuclear program. Iran denies this, saying its nuclear program is peaceful and aims to produce power for its growing population.
It can take years of negotiations for a country to enter the WTO. As a first step Iran could be granted observer status, a stepping stone to full accession.
Countries granted observer status must begin the process of moving toward full membership within five years. Actual entry into the WTO can take years beyond that, and the United States could still hold up those talks indefinitely.
A senior congressional aide involved in the WTO issue said: "It is a carrot, and it's not a very big one."
"It means nothing by itself," said Greg Mastel, chief international trade advisor at the law firm of Miller & Chevalier.
"Actual membership talks could drag out for months or years or decades, or it could move very quickly," Mastel said, adding that if Washington chooses, it would have the power to "slow things down" or block Tehran's accession down the road.
Saudi Arabia and Russia, two of the largest economies still outside the trade body, have been negotiating for a decade. China's accession to the WTO took about 15 years to complete after negotiations began.
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