THE HEIR TO AUTOCRACY
By Roula Khalaf

** The Syrian president Bashar al-Assad was seen as a modernizer but his failings have left him isolated. **

Financial Times (UK)
February 18, 2005

When Bashar al-Assad inherited the Syrian presidency from his late father Hafez in June 2000, western governments overlooked the undemocratic transition. Wishfully thinking that the 34-year-old, then an eye doctor, would steer the Ba'athist regime into a more constructive, and malleable, government, Europe embraced the young leader and the U.S. looked forward to better relations. Tony Blair and France's Jacques Chirac gave Mr. Assad a warm welcome in their capitals, billing him as part of a new reformist breed of leaders.

But as his regime this week stood accused by many Lebanese of assassinating Rafiq Hariri, Lebanon's former prime minister, the extent of disappointment in Mr. Assad's performance was starkly highlighted. The U.S. recalled its ambassador from Damascus in protest and France demanded an international investigation. Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese, usually afraid of criticizing Syria, turned Hariri's funeral into a rally against Mr. Assad. "For the last 10 to 15 years they have been controlling the country with an iron hand. Who could do this besides them [the Syrians]?" charges Walid Jumblatt, the Lebanese opposition leader and Hariri's close ally.

Within less than five years, Mr. Assad's regime has profoundly alienated the country's smaller, usually quiescent neighbour and squandered international goodwill, uniting France and the U.S. against it. In October, Paris and Washington, once bitterly divided over the Iraq war, joined forces to sponsor a United Nations resolution to pressure Mr. Assad to withdraw his 15,000 troops from Lebanon. "Syria is out of step with other countries in the Middle East," said George W. Bush this week, insisting that Washington would work with Europe to convince Damascus to make "rational decisions."

No one knows if Mr. Assad's regime is responsible for Hariri's brutal murder -- even the U.S. has yet to directly point the finger at Damascus. Mr. Assad denounced the killing and his officials have vehemently denied involvement. But Syria has adamantly resisted pressure to withdraw from Lebanon and earlier accused Hariri of lobbying for last year's U.N. resolution. The removal of Hariri, leader of the important Sunni Muslim community, could severely weaken the Lebanese opposition. Long before the assassination, the actions of the new, inexperienced Syrian regime had confounded western diplomats and raised doubts about Mr. Assad's control over an opaque administration that relies on an array of intelligence services.

"When Hafez was alive we used to say that he ran Syria with the help of the intelligence and the military. Now the intelligence and the military seem to be running Syria with the help of Bashar," says a Lebanese political analyst.

Mr. Assad had little political practice when he took the reins of power, perpetuating the rule of the minority Allawi sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam, over a Sunni majority. But his father turned to him after his elder brother Bassel, who had been groomed for succession, died in a car accident in 1994. In the following years, the young Assad promoted himself as a modernizer. Surrounded by young technocrats, he led a campaign to spread information technology in Syria.

On the political front too, he was seen as more amenable to reforms than his autocratic father. He quietly encouraged reformists to speak out. Once in power, however, he turned against the reformers and imprisoned leading figures. In an anti-corruption drive, he targeted members of his father's regime who had criticized his succession.

In Lebanon, Syrian intelligence services intensified their interference in domestic affairs. Although the U.N. certified Israel's 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon as complete, Syria and the pro-Lebanese government insisted that a small area remained occupied. And they have resisted international calls for the dismantling of Hizbollah, the Shia movement that helped drive Israeli troops out of southern Lebanon. Last year, despite widespread popular resentment against Emile Lahoud, the resolutely pro-Syrian Lebanese president, Damascus pressured parliament to back a three-year extension of his mandate. "The new guard in Syria turned out to be the old guard without experience," says a politician close to Hariri.

But it was Mr. Assad's policy towards Iraq, ruled by a rival branch of the Ba'ath party, that earned him the wrath of the Bush administration. The Syrian leader had calculated that Saddam Hussein would resist the 2003 U.S. invasion for many months. He allowed Syrian territory to be a conduit for Islamist extremists moving into Iraq to fight the U.S. Also, U.S. officials say that leaders of the Iraq insurgency are operating from Damascus. In recent months, Mr. Assad has sought to counter U.S. pressure by proclaiming his readiness to resume peace negotiations with Israel on a return of the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel in 1967. Israel has rebuffed the overture and the U.S. has shown no interest in helping.

But even as relations with the U.S. steadily deteriorate, the Syrian regime appears to be in denial. This week, Farouq al-Shara'a, the foreign minister, said the recall of the U.S. ambassador, Margaret Scobey, represented "an opportunity to channel Syria's position on regional developments directly to the U.S. administration."

Opposition leaders in Beirut say the wave of anger against Syria unleashed by Hariri's killing may eventually force Mr. Assad to face reality. "The Syrians don't realize this yet but there was an intifada (uprising) against Syria in Lebanon and people feel they cannot go back to the situation that prevailed before," says Samir Franjieh, a leading Lebanese opposition figure.